Michael Braun's Blog

Short Item: Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO and noted hip-shooter, is threatening to move the company’s jobs “offshore” if Obama passes through measures to curb tax evasion. You can read the story here.

Mr. Ballmer – you are already paranoid that your company is failing to a rival who has a tiny market share. You have proven yourself exceptionally inept in launching new products and services. Now, in the middle of a recession, in the middle of pro-American fervor, and in the face of a very popular president, you think your threats mean anything?

I can see the Mac vs. PC ad now. “Hello, I’m a Mac.” “And [In Chinese] I’m a PC.” “While Apple is building new business across America, including a new data center in North Carolina, PC, where have you been?” “[In Chinese] I’ve been busy giving up on America and moving jobs overseas, now, please, continue to buy my products!” [PC struggles to eat noodles with chopsticks and spills some on his suit.]

That’s what it’s going to be, Mr. Ballmer, unless you stop acting like an idiot.

It’s summer, so I’ve got a lot of time on my hands. One way that I’ve been spending it is by rereading some favorite books for children or that I enjoyed during my childhood.

1. The Harry Potter series.
I’ve read this series many times. I’ve read the 7th book four times now and the first 3 a dozen or more. Rereading the series I noticed a lot more of J. K. Rowling’s plotting devices, especially as I am very familiar with the plots by now. Still, the whole series is worth a read, a reread, and even a 3rd time through.

2. The Great Brain series, by John D. Fitzgerald.
There are 8 Great Brain books (I own the first 7), which take place in southwestern Utah in the late 1800s. The books are narrated by the author, or the author’s imagined self, and talk mostly about the exploits of his older brother Tom, the “Great Brain,” a precocious boy of 10 thru 12 over the series. These books take around a couple hours each to read.

3. The Fudge books, by Judy Bloom.
There are three in this series, that I own anyway. Tales of a Fourth Grade Nothing, Super Fudge, and Fudge-A-Mania. There’s also Otherwise Known as Sheila The Great. Overall, very funny books.

4. Gary Paulsen books.
I liked Hatchet and The River, about survival in the wilderness. But my favorite of Paulsen’s is The Haymeadow. I also liked The Car. I own Dogsong, but have never read it all through. Maybe I’ll give it another try, 15 years after I first bought it. There’s also the great Voyage of the Frog and Harris and Me.

5. Sid Fleischman.
Two books of his stand above the couple others I’ve read: Jingo Django and Humbug Mountain. I haven’t read those in a very long time.

5. Others?
Any favorite books from childhood to recommend? I have had recommended to me The Graveyard Book by Neil Gaiman, this year’s Newbery Aware Winner. I would love to read any others that you have to recommend!

First, if you haven’t seen it already, you may want to read Tony’s accounting of Microsoft’s, Sony’s, and Nintendo’s E3 presentations. Highly enjoyable and interesting. Basically, one trend at E3 this year was motion gaming. Microsoft unveiled their “Natal” camera. Sony released details about a magic wand device that works like a WiiMote. And Nintendo discussed their “Wii Motion Plus,” another peripheral that gives greater feedback about the positioning of the WiiMote.

The real question: to what end will these devices change gaming? Is motion gaming the future of the video game industry? Is it a passing trend? Does it represent a schism between hardcore and casual gamers down which the industry will split in two? What’s most interesting is that all 3 companies released similar products, yet each product could have a very different impact.

1. Project Natal, the motion sensing camera from Microsoft. Rather than hold a WiiMote, this camera can sense your body’s movement. So, if you want to kick a ball, you can just kick your foot. The camera can detect the motion and translate it into the game. This is a great concept, but seems to offer only slight benefits over the WiiMote. It cannot read subtle movements, like the rotating of an object, that would allow for more simulation in games. Most likely, we’ll see it incorporated into mainstream mini-game collections and used more creatively in small developer projects meant to be downloaded.

The main barrier to Natal’s success has to do with frustration. If the experience is not as accurate as promised, expected, or required, then the games are likely to be hugely irritating. Imagine trying to kick a ball so that it flies a long distance only to find your kick translated too late and the ball passing right by your foot. You have expended your own energy in kicking, for no result. If the option exists to simply press a button instead, it seems likely that many gamers will take this route. At least most Wii games can be played on the couch.

2. Sony’s magic wand, like a WiiMote, but with great accuracy in capturing movement. This has the potential to be good for Sony, as their powerful system might be able to turn out games that incorporate motion controls and have great graphics. But is it too late to get a boost from the gimmick? Part of the Wii’s success is its price; the PS3 does not have that advantage. Also, if the wand is to fit with hardcore games, then it must be tied with a traditional controller. Because the wand is separate, however, it seems unlikely to fit well with the current control scheme. Most games, I predict, will use either a traditional controller, the wand, or either, but seldom both. And if the wand is offered only as an add-on to an already expensive system, it may not catch on at all.

3. Nintendo’s Wii Motion Plus, the advanced version of the WiiMote. I’ve already written about the Wii’s over-dependence on peripherals. Unfortunately, the Wii Motion Plus seems like just another add-on, forcing consumers into hardware, rather than software, purchases. Additionally, games for the Wii has been notoriously weak and those that use motion controls have failed to live up to the hype. The best game I’ve played for the Wii? World of Goo, a $15 download that uses no motion controls at all.

Wii Motion Plus, if it is going to succeed, needs to be built into all new controllers, available packaged as part of Wii systems, sold at a low price ($15-$20), and work with a great lineup of software. If it can do that, then it may succeed. If not, or if Nintendo releases yet another peripheral (Wii Motion Double Plus) a year from now, then it will be another disappointment for the Wii. Why not a motion sensor for the DS that fits in the GBA game slot? Because Nintendo has gotten rid of that slot on the DSi, recognizing, perhaps, that motion controls, and other add-on peripherals, don’t automatically lead to good software.

We’ll see what comes of these devices in the next few months. What will be most interesting to see is if Nintendo’s sales lead continues even with Sony and Microsoft offering devices that compete more directly. If that’s the case, then it seems clear that there is a schism in the gaming world and that Nintendo’s dominance has more to do with price and accessibility than waggling controls. If not, and Sony and Microsoft get hooked on motion gaming, then god help the hardcore gamer; their time may be done.

Dell has stopped selling its Mini 9 netbook, according to CNet. Its sister product, the Mini 10, with a larger screen was evidently selling better, thus causing the elimination. It’s hard to read much into this decision, but it makes me think that the netbook phase (yes, it is a phase) has a lot more to do with price than portability.

Evidently, consumers are gravitating toward larger screens. Even in netbooks, where a 10 inch screen is likely to have the same resolution as a 9 inch screen, the sales differences were large enough for Dell to cancel the product. Or some anecdotal evidence – the Microsoft commercial where the buyer searches for a 17 inch screen for under $1000. For whatever reason, consumers like large screens. I’ll posit that it’s a heuristic of quality or usability. Bigger screen equals bigger value and bigger productivity.

So how does this fit with netbooks? These microcomputers have been selling well lately. Their selling features are mainly price and size. They aren’t expensive, as they lack huge amounts of power. And they are very small, meaning it’s easy to carry them around. But if Dell’s decision reflects any larger trend, it’s that netbooks have been selling well based on price rather than portability. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a market for ultraportable devices, but it does mean that the brunt of consumer purchases will go for a product with the most value, rather than the most portability.

Other companies need to be wary of this. A netbook that is high powered and expensive, like Sony’s new Vaio netbook, may not sell well, as most consumers will be put off by the price. Even though it represents the best in portable computing, it doesn’t have what it takes to move the average buyer. If Sony really wanted to make a splash, they should release a cheap Vaio with a 15 inch screen. Priced below $600, it would fly off the shelves.

I think Apple has done a good job of being cautious about the netbook market. They have yet to release a product that is stripped down and cheap. They have an ultraportable (their version) in the MacBook Air, and they have a mobile computing device in the iPhone and iPod Touch. If and when they release a tablet computer, I’m certain they will be careful about not marketing it as a netbook, but instead as a new device altogether.

I’m not sure if netbooks will remain popular forever, but it seems like the trend now has a lot more to do with price than it does with portability. Computing power doesn’t seem to mean a lot to the average computer user, which may be the main reason that there are so many dissatisfied Dell customers and so many happy Apple users. Selling an underpowered, cheap computer may move units, but it is still a far way from changing consumer desires. In the end, the rule of more for less still wins out.